Internet develops super-fast pace: something that was popular today, and tomorrow is aging, and the next day is a rarity.
And what to blogs and the blogsphere? Blogs and bloggers also change and evolve, and those bloggers that would cling to the old foundations and traditions, can be left out of progress.
I wrote these lines in the train, returning from a meeting of the Press Club DTEK, which discussed the theme of the future of media in 20 years. And although the fact that newspapers and magazines will go down in history after 20 years, no one doubted that the answer to the question, what do publishers have not been found. And this uncertainty is frightening.
So I suggest you now to think: what moves the blogsphere and what blogs come in 10-20 years to know for what to prepare and not be horrified by the changes.
The word “blog” will lose defining the meaning of.
Now the word blog can be called a corporate blog, personal blog, online diary of an irrational – well, all the resources that are regularly published content with the ability to comment and the subscription can be called a blog.
In the past, it took just two years, that of «web log» to «blog»; over the past few years, bloggers have become taste terms: tlog, splog, moblog, blogkast, and meanwhile the composite “video blog”, “photoblog” “news blog” nobody will be surprised.
Further, we can expect polish and formation of dozens of definitions of blogs and blogging style.
Blogs will become much less
Now blogs – at the peak of popularity: Top Blogs runet Yandex “has already counted 42 million blogs in runet. But we must understand that most of these blogs do not create content, and laykayut, retweets and repost. Over time, these activities will strictly distinguish. How to share those whistles in the bathroom and sing opera.
Era games will be held in UGC: create content will no longer fashionable, so today’s “type bloggers” will move to a more usual consumption of content and self-expression through consumption.
There will be many services through which you can consume content bloggers; services will create mixes husks, etc. Content from the bloggers – it will be another factor to meet the needs of content huge mass of people, even smaller than now, a group of bloggers.
In the big blogging would come a lot of money
Blogging will be something like a large sport – even brighter, better, more often. And for such miracles of production of content, bloggers will have to pay huge amounts of money as it is now paid professional athletes. It will be interesting to observe the bloggers, admire them, but to take and do as they will already be unrealistic. Even thought this does not even appear.
How unrealistic is now comparable in speed with a professional athlete – has devoted a lifetime sport.
A simple, users will become even more lazy and inactive, they will not have anything to search, download, install. Program will do everything for them – they will only consume.
Censorship, morality and ethics will disappear as such
Now, many bloggers pride themselves on their ability to screw up the word obscene or indecent photos. In this they stand out, playing on the edge of what is permitted.
In the future, law and punishment are automated and standardized (at least on the Internet to write this self-learning program) – no one will hold the proceedings and conduct a dialogue: violated the law – and in a split second to launch the mechanism of punishment.
Therefore, all that along with the violation of laws, will be a sort of niche, and the rest of the audience will not be perceived with the storm of indignation, as before.
Blogging will go beyond the Internet
After 20 years the Internet will be simple and obyden as today radio or television and the Internet will only become part of the blog.
For example, it is now RSS – an integral part of blogs and the Internet will become a characteristic, but the uninteresting part of blogging.
Bloggers, depending on a variety of existing styles, will conduct its activities in the offline and that can become over the Internet. For example, “soshialnet”, “neyronet”, “interspeys” – that may come up and bring our children, who in 20 years will be new to Gates, Steve Jobs, Page and Brin.
And finally, before the offer arguments like “now it is not, therefore will not be”, remember how there were upheavals in science and technology. And what happened to those who deny the progress and the ideas of innovators.